Sunday, December 06 2009 - 10:54 AM
Climate Change: Rational Discussion
There is no question that major climactic changes were happening long before humankind walked this planet and will likely continue long after we’re gone. The question that no one can fully answer is to what extent human activity has impacted the current warming trend and what, if anything, can we do to mitigate it?

There are too many variables in our understanding of global climate, from sunspot activity, to volcanic activity, to ocean salinity, to make confident predictions. One of the great ironies of the “global warming” scenario is that it could actually plunge us into another Ice Age as fresh water from melting glaciers and the polar ice caps changes ocean salinity and disrupts the “conveyor belt” currents that carry warm water from the equator to northern and southern latitudes.

No one in their right mind would defend bad science and, if some climatologists have been “cooking the books’ to strengthen their case, they should be investigated and their malfeasance revealed. But for climate-change deniers to insist this debunks all the evidence, or that 150-plus years of made-made industrial pollution has not been a factor, or that “God would not allow his creation to be destroyed” are in in a state of blind avoidance.

There are few certainties, but it can be said with confidence that the Earth’s climate as we know it has been due to of a series of delicate balances and those balances are now at risk with unpredictable consequences.

One thing is certain, if present trends continue, it can be expected that as we reach critical “tipping points”, we will see extreme, freakish localized weather conditions, coastal flooding, mass migrations and a battle for resources.

Some have argued that global warming would be a good thing, that even as some areas became arid, others would become fertile. But what happens when millions of people (and animals) are on the move and the inevitable territorial disputes that would follow? Wars have begun over far less.

Can we reverse these trends? Probably not. But we can take reasoned and reasonable steps to mitigate the effects of climate change.

The planet will survive. The question is, will we?

Like all complex systems, the Earth’s climate is self-regulating. Whether responding to asteroid collisions or volcanic eruptions, through ice ages or greenhouse heat, the planet seeks to restore balance, over thousands or even millions of years. But life on the planet has suffered several mass extinctions while it gradually restores climatic equilibrium.

During the last major climate change, about 1,100 years ago, there were roughly one million humans on the planet. They were mostly nomadic hunter-gatherers who could, in the face of climate change, move with relative ease to more hospitable environments. Today, there are 6.65 billion of us, mostly clustered in and around large urban centers and mass-movement becomes much more problematic.

It is estimated that a two-inch rise in global sea level could displace a half-billion people. Mass migrations are inevitably followed by territorial disputes. The fights will be about more than just available land, but over resources – food, water, power – to sustain these migrant populations.

The global climate equilibrium, as well as our civilization, is fragile and inter-dependent. The coming years may demonstrate just how tenous our grasp is.

Our limited understanding of the climate’s complexity makes tinkering through “geo-engineering” solutions extremely dangerous due to the very real possibility of unforeseen consequences of our actions. We cannot even say for certain whether increased carbon dioxide causes global warming or whether global warming causes increased carbon dioxide?

The only thing I’m really sure of is that a do-nothing, “business-as-usual” attitude is a recipe for disaster.

Would you like to comment on this blog post? Login to talk back!